Ontario Is Underperforming Canada — Here’s Why Markham Is Still the Smartest Bet in the Province
Ontario's real GDP growth is lagging Canada's national average, with per-capita GDP below pre-pandemic levels. Michael John Lau & Neeraj Moolchandani explain why Markham's technology-anchored economy is structurally insulated from Ontario's manufacturing weakness — and why provincial weakness actually makes Markham's assets more valuable.
The economic news from Ontario in 2025 and 2026 is not good. Ontario’s real GDP growth is projected at 1.0% to 1.4% in 2026, while Canada’s GDP growth is projected at 1.4% — making Ontario one of the weakest-performing provinces in Canada by per-capita economic output. RBC Economics noted that Ontario’s real GDP growth is at the bottom of the provincial table given its acute exposure to both trade and population headwinds. In Q4 2025, Ontario’s real GDP decreased by 0.3%, marking the second decline in the past three quarters. From 2019 to 2024, per-person GDP in Ontario actually declined by 0.7%.
Michael John Lau and Neeraj Moolchandani, top real estate agents in Markham Ontario, are not going to sugarcoat this. But they are going to explain why Markham specifically performs differently from Ontario broadly — and why the provincial weakness makes Markham’s specific assets more valuable, not less.
Why Markham’s Economy Is Structurally Insulated From Ontario’s Weakness
Ontario’s economic underperformance is concentrated in sectors that Markham has limited exposure to. Manufacturing — auto parts, steel, aluminum — which bears the brunt of US tariff pressure, is not a significant Markham employment sector. The province’s manufacturing weakness affects Hamilton, Windsor, Oshawa, and Brampton disproportionately relative to Markham.
Markham’s economic base is technology and professional services — sectors not subject to US tariffs in the same way that physical goods manufacturers are. IBM Canada, AMD, Apple, Microsoft, Huawei, and the broader 1,500-company technology ecosystem in Markham are largely insulated from the manufacturing tariff exposure that is dragging down Ontario’s aggregate GDP.
Furthermore, AI investment is specifically accelerating into Ontario technology companies and data centres in ways that cut against the provincial economic headwind. Microsoft’s 100MW data centre, AMD’s GPU portfolio expansion driven by global AI demand, and York University’s AI research commercialization ecosystem are growth catalysts that are province-positive rather than tariff-sensitive.
Ontario’s Underperformance as a Markham Real Estate Opportunity
When Ontario’s broader economy underperforms, capital and talent do not leave the province — they concentrate in the province’s most economically robust nodes. Markham, as Canada’s technology capital, is the most economically robust node in Ontario outside of downtown Toronto’s financial district.
The real estate implication: when the broader provincial economy weakens, the premium that buyers place on economic security — a stable employer base, high-income employment concentration, a neighbourhood that holds value through cycles — increases. Markham’s technology employment base provides exactly this security premium in a way that communities dependent on manufacturing, retail, or service-sector employment cannot.
Ontario’s economy is projected to return to long-term average GDP growth of approximately 1.9% per year from 2027 to 2029 as it adjusts to US tariff impacts. A mutually favourable Canada-US trade outcome could support stronger-than-expected growth significantly earlier. The recovery from Ontario’s current weakness — whenever it arrives — will benefit Markham’s real estate market disproportionately on the upside, just as the current weakness has been cushioned by Markham’s insulated employment base.
Invest in Ontario’s Strongest Node During a Provincial Weakness Window
Michael John Lau & Neeraj Moolchandani track provincial economic data as a component of the market intelligence they provide — because the context for Markham, even within a challenging Ontario environment, is structurally more favourable than the provincial headline suggests.
Book a Market Strategy Call (647) 370-8885Buying Markham When the Provincial Narrative Is Negative
Buying in Markham when the provincial narrative is negative is buying into strength at a time when weakness-narrative pricing creates entry opportunities. History consistently validates this pattern: the Markham buyers who purchased in 2015 (Ontario growth concerns), in 2018–2019 (post-peak correction period), and in 2020 (pandemic uncertainty) were the ones who captured the most significant subsequent appreciation. The 2026 provincial weakness narrative is creating the same entry dynamic for buyers who can distinguish between Ontario’s manufacturing-driven weakness and Markham’s technology-anchored strength.
Michael John Lau and Neeraj Moolchandani, top real estate agents in Markham Ontario, track provincial economic data as a component of the market intelligence they provide to buyer and seller clients. The context matters — and the context for Markham, even within a challenging Ontario environment, is structurally more favourable than the provincial headline suggests.
Michael John Lau and Neeraj Moolchandani are licensed REALTOR®s and members of the Kaizen Real Estate Team at eXp Realty (eXp Luxury), serving buyers and sellers in Markham, Ontario and across York Region. Licence #4784577. Office: 8763 Bayview Avenue #127, Richmond Hill, ON. This blog is for general informational purposes only.
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