What does CMHC's latest forecast mean for Markham buyers who are waiting? CMHC's 2026 Housing Market Outlook expects the GTA market to stay soft through 2026, then recover in 2027 and 2028—with rising demand, falling inventory, and returning price growth led by the GTA. For buyers waiting, it points to a closing window of maximum choice and negotiating power before conditions tighten.
Every Markham buyer sitting on the sidelines is asking the same question: is waiting the smart move, or am I about to miss the bottom? CMHC's latest forecast gives the most authoritative answer available—and it deserves a careful read. Michael John Lau and Neeraj Moolchandani break down what the national housing agency is actually projecting.
What CMHC Is Forecasting
In its 2026 Housing Market Outlook, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) projects that Canada's housing market will remain soft through the remainder of 2026—slower sales, modest price declines, and reduced construction—before conditions gradually improve in 2027 and 2028.
The recovery is expected to be led by the Greater Toronto Area. CMHC's figures project GTA home sales rising from roughly 63,000 in 2026 to between 69,500 and 71,500 in 2027, and higher again—between 75,200 and 77,000—in 2028. Critically, CMHC expects increasing housing demand to drive price growth in both 2027 and 2028, led by lower inventory and stronger demand in the GTA, with fewer new completions reducing the flow of new supply.
Reading Between the Lines for Markham
Markham sits at the heart of the GTA market CMHC is describing, so the forecast maps directly onto local conditions. Here is what the projection implies for a Markham buyer who is currently waiting.
| Forecast Element | What It Means Locally | Buyer Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Soft 2026 Market | Elevated inventory, ~32 days on market, 98.9% sale-to-list ratio across Markham. | Maximum choice and negotiating leverage. The definition of a buyer-friendly window. |
| 2027 Recovery Begins | Rising demand meets shrinking supply as pre-construction completions fall. | Window begins to close. Confidence returns alongside competition and firmer prices. |
| Supply Constraint | Weak pre-construction sales today = fewer new homes reaching market in 2027–28. | The key price driver most overlooked by buyers focused only on interest rates. |
| GTA-Led Growth | Markham, as a core GTA municipality, will experience recovery ahead of peripheral markets. | Waiting for a "safe" signal may mean buying into renewed competition locally. |
What This Means If You Are Waiting
The instinct to wait for a lower price is understandable, but CMHC's forecast reframes the decision. The question is not simply "will prices fall further in 2026?"—they might, modestly. The more important question is "what happens when I actually try to buy?"
A buyer who purchases in the soft 2026 market buys with choice and leverage. A buyer who waits for the 2027 recovery to feel safe may buy into rising prices and renewed competition—the exact conditions that make buying harder.
None of this is a guarantee. Forecasts are projections, not certainties, and rates, policy, and the economy can all shift. But CMHC's outlook is the most authoritative signal available, and it points to a specific window. Michael John Lau’s CPA/CMA background brings financial rigor to interpreting these signals, while Neeraj Moolchandani’s market expertise grounds them in Markham-specific realities. Together, they help buyers read the market and their own circumstances clearly—so the decision to buy or wait is made on evidence, not fear.
Buy on Evidence, Not Fear
Don't let uncertainty paralyze you. Michael John Lau and Neeraj Moolchandani help Markham buyers read the market and their own numbers clearly—so buying or waiting is a decision made on data, not headlines.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will home prices in the GTA go up in 2027?
CMHC's 2026 Housing Market Outlook projects that increasing demand and lower inventory will drive price growth in the GTA in both 2027 and 2028, following a soft 2026. This is a forecast, not a guarantee—actual outcomes depend on rates, policy, and the economy.
Is 2026 a good time to buy in Markham?
CMHC expects 2026 to feature soft sales, elevated inventory, and modest price softness—conditions that give buyers maximum choice and negotiating leverage before a projected 2027 recovery. Whether it is right for you depends on your circumstances; consult a professional.
Should I wait to buy a home in Markham?
CMHC's forecast suggests that waiting for the market to feel safe in 2027 may mean buying into rising prices and renewed competition, whereas buying in the soft 2026 market offers more leverage. The right choice depends on your personal situation and timeline.
Time Your Purchase With Confidence
Forecasts inform strategy, but your personal circumstances determine the right move. Partner with Michael John Lau and Neeraj Moolchandani to align market data with your goals.
