Is the Markham Condo Market a Trap — or a 10-Year Opportunity?
The Markham condo market in 2026 is the most misunderstood segment of York Region real estate. Investors and speculators — who drove the condo market to its 2021 and 2022 peaks — have largely retreated. Prices are down. Inventory is elevated. The headlines are uniformly negative. And first-time buyers, conditioned by the disastrous FOMO decisions of the pandemic era, are sitting on the sidelines waiting for "clarity" that may never arrive in the form they expect.
Michael John Lau, REALTOR® and CPA/CMA at Kaizen Real Estate in Markham, Ontario, is going to give you both sides of this argument honestly — because both sides are real — and then tell you what the data actually supports for a first-time buyer with a ten-year time horizon.
The Bear Case — Why the Condo Market Is Genuinely Challenging Right Now
The numbers in the GTA condo market are difficult, and they need to be acknowledged without sugarcoating.
Market Data: In the Greater Toronto Area, the condominium market continues to grapple with significant oversupply. Sales declined nearly 12% year over year, while average prices fell just over 5% to about $691,000. Re/Max estimates the GTA is still working through close to two years of inventory, with meaningful improvement unlikely before mid-2026.
TD Economics notes that 2024 was yet another weak year for the GTA resale condo market, with benchmark prices falling 4% in annual average terms and sales hitting their lowest level since the Global Financial Crisis. Condo prices declined again in the first quarter of 2025, marking the fifth straight such drop, while sales activity was soft.
The supply picture is the core of the problem. Construction starts fell from 18,950 units in 2023 to just 9,258 in 2024, representing a 51% decline. After record completions of 31,396 units expected in 2025, completions are projected to fall to 17,487 units in 2026. The wave of completions from pandemic-era pre-construction purchases is hitting the resale market simultaneously with investor exits, creating a short-term supply glut that is suppressing prices.
For Markham condo buyers specifically, the Downtown Markham market has a large and growing pipeline — Gallery Towers, UnionCity, Pangea Condos — delivering thousands of new units between now and 2028. This supply will compete with existing resale inventory for a buyer pool that remains constrained.
The honest summary of the bear case: if you buy a Markham condo in 2026 and need to sell in 2027 or 2028, you may not recoup your purchase price. Condo investment in 2026 is not a short-term play.
The Bull Case — Why 2026 Is Potentially Generational for Long-Term Buyers
The same data that makes the bear case also contains the most compelling bull case for patient first-time buyers.
The construction pipeline shows a dramatic future supply cliff. After record completions in 2025, completions are projected to fall to 17,487 units in 2026 and potentially below 10,000 units annually by 2028. Between 2026 and 2028, completions are projected to drop nearly 60%.
This supply cliff is the most important fact in the GTA condo market. The new units flooding the market today came from pre-construction purchases made in 2019, 2020, and 2021 — when the market was hot and developers were launching projects confidently. Since mid-2023, pre-construction launches have collapsed. Construction starts have hit 30-year lows. The pipeline that would deliver new condo supply in 2028, 2029, and 2030 is largely empty.
Simultaneously, the long-term demand drivers for Markham condo housing are structurally intact. York University's Markham Campus is now operational with thousands of students, faculty, and staff creating sustained rental and ownership demand in Downtown Markham. The IndyCar Series Grand Prix at Markham Centre beginning in August 2026 confirms the city's intention to build a genuine urban entertainment core around the Downtown Markham development. Immigration to the GTA, while somewhat reduced from peak targets, continues at levels that absorb housing supply over the medium term.
TD Economics notes that while 2025 was a poor year for GTA condos, 2026 could see some modestly improved fortunes, with the interest rate backdrop being supportive and pent-up demand present. Most forecasts point to stabilization by 2026 and a strong rebound by 2028 as supply falls and rates ease.
The First-Time Buyer Math in Markham's Current Condo Market
A one-bedroom condo in Downtown Markham is currently available in the $539,900 to $650,000 range. At a 10% down payment of $54,000 to $65,000 on an insured mortgage, monthly payments at current rates are approximately $2,600 to $3,100. Add maintenance fees of $350 to $550 per month and property tax of approximately $250 to $350 per month. Total monthly housing cost: approximately $3,200 to $4,000.
Versus renting the same unit at Markham's current average one-bedroom rent of $2,287 per month. The monthly carrying cost difference is approximately $900 to $1,700 — the "cost" of ownership versus renting in the current Markham condo market.
- First Home Savings Account (FHSA): Contributions of $8,000 per year tax-free toward a first home purchase, up to a lifetime limit of $40,000.
- Home Buyers' Plan (HBP): Withdrawal of up to $60,000 from existing RRSPs tax-free for a qualifying first home purchase.
- First-Time Home Buyers' Tax Credit: Provides a $1,500 tax rebate in the year of purchase.
- Ontario Land Transfer Tax Rebate: Up to $4,000 reduces closing cost exposure for first-time buyers.
- HST Rebate: For new construction purchases signed before March 31, 2027, the full 13% HST rebate of up to $130,000 on homes valued up to $1,000,000 applies.
For a first-time buyer with a ten-year horizon, that monthly premium builds equity in an asset that is currently priced at cyclical lows, in a city with structural long-term demand, in a market where the supply that would compete with your unit in 2028, 2029, and 2030 has largely not been built. The question is not whether the condo market will recover — it will, because the supply cliff and persistent population growth make some level of recovery near-certain. The question is whether you have the financial runway and the patience to hold through the bottom.
Michael John Lau, REALTOR® and CPA/CMA at Kaizen Real Estate in Markham, Ontario, runs the full financial analysis for first-time condo buyers — modelling the true cost of ownership versus renting, the equity build scenario over five and ten years, and the specific unit and building characteristics that position buyers best for long-term performance.
🏆 Michael John Lau — Awards & Recognition
Michael John Lau is a licensed REALTOR® and CPA/CMA serving buyers and sellers in Markham, Ontario and the Greater Toronto Area. This blog is for general informational purposes and does not constitute financial or investment advice. All buyers should consult a qualified mortgage professional, accountant, and real estate lawyer before purchasing.
